About 60% of Asia–Europe capacity is back on Suez. See which carriers have returned, the 10–14 days saved, falling spot rates and 2027 contract tips.
By Paul Liang | Mingsung International Logistics · Reviewed · 16 min read
- 60%Asia–Europe capacity back on Suez, Nov 5
- 10–14 daysSaved to North Europe versus the Cape
- −30%Xeneta forecast for 2027 spot rates
Bottom line
About 60% of Asia–Europe capacity is back on Suez, but your container only gets the shorter transit if its own voyage does
Drewry's count on November 5, 2026 put 60% of Asia–Europe container capacity on the Suez route, with 53 container ships passing the canal in a single week. The return began in July, sped up in September, and the largest alliance expects to have nearly all of its services back in the first quarter of 2027.
That changes three numbers every importer cares about: transit time, freight rate and arrival date. It does not change them evenly, and it can still reverse.
Three things to get right:
- Routing is set per service, per direction and per voyage. Two sailings from the same carrier in the same week can take different routes. Check the vessel and voyage on your booking, not the carrier's headline.
- Suez saves roughly 10–14 days to North Europe and 7–10 days to the Mediterranean. When Suez ships and Cape ships arrive in the same week, European terminals get both at once.
- Rates are heading down, but a single incident can send ships back around Africa in days. Carriers reversed course twice in early 2026. Keep a Cape-timing scenario for cargo you cannot afford to have late.
Suez or Cape: what each routing means for your cargo
One question decides your transit time: which way is this voyage going?
About 60% of capacity
Via the Suez Canal
- Shanghai–Rotterdam: 10,513 nautical miles
- About 32–35 days to North Europe, port to port
- Some carriers add piracy-risk and canal surcharges
- Can be diverted at short notice if security worsens
The remaining 40%
Via the Cape of Good Hope
- Shanghai–Rotterdam: 13,793 nautical miles
- About 45–60 days to North Europe, port to port
- No Red Sea exposure
- Still the routing for services that have not switched
The capacity share is Drewry’s estimate for November 5, 2026. Your booking’s vessel and voyage decide which column applies: see how to check your routing.
Where does the Suez return stand in November 2026?
More than half of the trade is back. The numbers below come from different analysts who measure different things, so they do not line up exactly, but they point the same way.
| Indicator | Latest reading | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| Share of Asia–Europe capacity on Suez | 60% | Drewry, Nov 5 |
| Container ships through the canal in one week, both directions | 53 | Drewry, Nov 5 |
| Asia–Europe loops back on Suez | 30 of 52 westbound, 32 of 57 eastbound | Linerlytica via C.H. Robinson, late Oct |
| Container ships still diverted around the Cape | About 180, against an average of 350 over the past two years | Linerlytica via C.H. Robinson, late Oct |
| Weekly capacity offered through the Red Sea | 467,297 TEU in October, half the August 2023 level and double late August 2026 | Xeneta, Nov 5 |
| Suez Canal share of all container capacity | 36% in early October; 8% on average from 2024 to mid-2026; 80% before the attacks | BIMCO, using Clarksons data |
Source: Drewry WCI, Nov 5; C.H. Robinson, Nov 2026; Xeneta via AJOT; BIMCO via Tradlinx
How the return unfolded
| When | What happened |
|---|---|
| Late 2023 | Houthi attacks in the Red Sea push carriers around the Cape of Good Hope |
| Feb 28, 2026 | US and Israeli strikes on Iran close the Strait of Hormuz. Carriers that had just restarted Suez sailings divert again |
| July 2026 | A tentative US–Iran peace holds. The Gemini Cooperation moves its AE15 service back, with the first sailing leaving Port Said on July 24 |
| Late August | MSC restores Suez transits on four east–west services, one service at a time |
| September | The Houthis tell the EU and the US they will not target their ships. Saudi-linked vessels remain targets. COSCO and OOCL send 24,000-TEU ships through the canal |
| October | Premier Alliance schedules its FE1 Asia–North Europe service through Suez. Almost every major carrier has at least a partial return |
| November | Gemini's India–Europe service switches from November 4. A new Gemini Asia–Mediterranean service is due to start from Shanghai on November 22 |
| Q1 2027 | Gemini expects nearly all services back "provided conditions do not change." Drewry expects transits at about 80% of pre-crisis levels by February |
Source: SeaVantage timeline; FreightWaves, Jul 6; Kuehne+Nagel, Sep 4; gCaptain, Oct 1; transport-online, Nov 4; FreightWaves, Oct 20; Drewry via Breakbulk News
Which carriers are back on Suez?
Every alliance now has ships in the canal, but none has moved its whole network. This is the position in early November.
| Alliance or carrier | Status | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini Cooperation (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) | AE15/SE3 since July and AE19 since August. AE11/SE2 and AE5/NE4 switched westbound from September 19–21. AE12/SE1 and ME2/IEX were announced. ME1/IOS (India–Europe) switched from November 4. A new Asia–Mediterranean service, AE18/SE5, starts November 22. The rest is expected in Q1 2027 | First Suez sailing differs by direction, and the two partners sometimes publish different dates |
| MSC (independent) | Partial return since August 24–25 on four east–west services, including Albatros, Jade, Himalaya and Tiger | MSC decides voyage by voyage |
| Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, OOCL, Evergreen) | CMA CGM kept Suez services running under naval escort and logged 199 transits by late September. COSCO and OOCL megaships have transited since mid-September. Evergreen had not announced a return as of late September | Routing varies by member, so ask for it in writing per voyage |
| Premier Alliance (ONE, HMM, Yang Ming) | FE1 Asia–North Europe moved first: ONE Continuity left Laem Chabang on October 19 and was scheduled through Suez on November 9, reaching Rotterdam on November 19. Other services are moving one by one | Members also hold slots on MSC's Tiger service, which uses Suez |
| ZIM | Public schedules still showed Cape routing in early November | — |
| Wan Hai | Kept its Far East–Mediterranean and Asia–Red Sea services on Suez through the crisis | — |
Source: Tradlinx status table; Kuehne+Nagel, Sep 4; Kuehne+Nagel, Jul 10; gCaptain, Oct 1; transport-online, Nov 4; FreightWaves, Oct 20; SEKO, Nov 5
How much time does the Suez route save?
About two weeks to North Europe, a little less to the Mediterranean.
| Measure | Via Suez | Via Cape of Good Hope | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai–Rotterdam sailing distance | 10,513 nautical miles | 13,793 nautical miles | 3,280 nm shorter |
| Asia to North Europe, port to port (planning range) | 32–35 days | 45–60 days | About 10–14 days |
| Asia to the first Mediterranean port | — | — | About 7–10 days saved |
| A real schedule: Premier Alliance FE1, Laem Chabang to Rotterdam | 31 days (Oct 19 to Nov 19) | — | — |
Source: Searoutes; SEKO, Nov 5; gCaptain, Oct 1
These are planning ranges, not promises. The saving on a given service depends on its port rotation and sailing speed, and carriers can use part of the time saved to slow ships down and burn less fuel.
What is happening to Asia–Europe rates?
Spot rates have fallen by about a third since July, bounced in October, and are still far above where they were before the Hormuz crisis.
| Index | Lane | Latest level, per 40ft | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drewry WCI, Nov 5 | Shanghai–Rotterdam | $3,615 | Down 2% on the week |
| Drewry WCI, Nov 5 | Shanghai–Genoa | $4,166 | Flat |
| Xeneta, Oct 23 | Far East–North Europe | $3,698 | Down 33.2% since July 1; up 67% since February 28 |
| Xeneta, Oct 23 | Far East–Mediterranean | $4,442 | Down 36.7% since July 1; up 33% since February 28 |
| Freightos FBX, Oct 20 | Asia–North Europe | $3,442 | Up 6% on the week after rate increases |
Source: Drewry WCI, Nov 5; Xeneta, Oct 23; Freightos, Oct 20
Why are rates not lower, with all that capacity returning? Three reasons show up in the analyst notes. Demand has been strong, with Far East–Europe volumes up 12.2% in the first seven months of the year. Crude oil was still near $100 a barrel in late October. And carriers are pushing rate increases in mid-November, ahead of 2027 contract talks. Drewry doubts those increases will hold, because capacity is ample: carriers have cut eight Asia–Europe sailings this week and five next week to support the market.
What analysts expect for 2027
| Forecaster | The call |
|---|---|
| Xeneta, Ocean Outlook 2027 (Nov 5) | Global average spot rates down 30% in 2027 against Q3 2026; long-term rates down 5%. Fleet growth of 6.8% against demand growth of 2.5–4% |
| Drewry (Oct 26) | The end of diversions frees about 1.6 million TEU of effective capacity in 2027, on top of about 1.3 million TEU of new ships. Contract rates fall further. The order book equals 45% of the fleet |
| Freightos (Oct 20) | Full recovery of Red Sea traffic in Q1 2027, raising the risk of overcapacity |
Source: Xeneta via AJOT, Nov 5; Drewry via Breakbulk News, Oct 26; Freightos, Oct 20
Xeneta's chief analyst Peter Sand put it this way in October: "we are not at the floor yet." He added a caution in November: market fundamentals "are easily overpowered by major supply chain shocks."
Back on Suez does not mean free of surcharges
MSC told customers on November 4 that from November 15 it will apply a Piracy Risk Surcharge of $55 per TEU and a Suez Canal Surcharge of $36 per TEU to all ports on its Asia to Mediterranean and Black Sea trade. When you compare a Suez quote with a Cape quote, compare the all-in number.
What can go wrong during the switch?
Four things, and the first two are already visible.
| Risk | What it looks like | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Vessel bunching in Europe | Suez and Cape ships reach Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges and Hamburg together. Drewry flags the risk, and C.H. Robinson reports all three ports under operational pressure | Pre-book trucks and warehouse slots; ask for extra free time in new contracts |
| Poor schedule reliability | Xeneta counted only 4% of Far East–Europe arrivals on time in September | Plan on ranges, not dates, until reliability recovers |
| A sudden reversal | CMA CGM moved three services back to the Cape on January 20, 2026. Maersk reversed two services within two days at the end of February. In mid-October a French frigate shot down a drone near a CMA CGM ship at Bab el-Mandeb | Keep a Cape-timing plan for time-critical orders |
| Stock arriving early | Orders placed on 50-day assumptions land in 35 days, on top of earlier orders | Re-time purchase orders gradually, not all at once |
Source: Drewry WCI, Nov 5; C.H. Robinson, Nov 2026; Xeneta via AJOT; Tradlinx, Oct 16
Hapag-Lloyd's chief executive said in October that the step-by-step approach has so far let Gemini manage workloads at European hubs without major problems. That is the case for a slow return, and it is why the full switch is taking months.
How to check which way your container is going
- Read the vessel and voyage number on the booking confirmation. Compare it with the carrier's advisory listing the first Suez sailing for that service and direction.
- Do not assume an alliance partner's voyage number matches. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, for example, have published different first dates for the same service.
- Compare the quoted transit with the planning range. A 32–35 day port-to-port transit to North Europe points to Suez. Forty-five days or more points to the Cape.
- Ask for the routing in writing if the booking is on an Ocean Alliance or Premier Alliance vessel operated by another member.
- Check again after any rollover or transshipment. The replacement vessel may be routed differently from the one you booked.
What should go into your 2027 contracts?
Most Asia–Europe annual contracts are negotiated in the last quarter of the year, which means you are negotiating while the routing is still changing. Write the change into the contract.
| Clause | Why it matters now |
|---|---|
| Routing and transit-time commitment per service | The same contract can otherwise deliver 32-day and 50-day transits |
| Surcharges tied to routing | Cape-related and emergency charges should fall away on Suez sailings; war-risk and piracy charges should be itemized |
| An index-linked share of volume | Lets your rate follow the market down if the forecasts are right |
| A reopener if the Suez share changes sharply | Protects both sides if carriers divert again |
| Destination free time | Bunching will lengthen dwell times at European terminals |
| Space commitment through Chinese New Year | The holiday falls on February 6, 2027, in the middle of the switch |
A reasonable starting split is a fixed rate for the volume you are sure of and an indexed rate for the rest. For how the same logic plays out on the Pacific, see our 2027 transpacific contract playbook.
A 6-step plan for the next 90 days
-
Map open orders by voyage
- List every booking and purchase order due to sail before March.
- Mark each one Suez, Cape or unknown, using the checks above.
-
Re-time purchase orders in stages
- Shorten lead-time assumptions for services that have switched.
- Keep Cape timing for services that have not, and for anything time-critical.
-
Prepare for early and bunched arrivals
- Book inland transport and warehouse space for December to February.
- Tell your customs broker which arrivals have moved.
-
Ask your insurer one question
- Confirm whether a Red Sea transit changes the war-risk terms or premium on your cargo policy.
-
Negotiate the six clauses
- Use the table above as your checklist in every 2027 tender.
- Ask each bidder which of their services are on Suez today.
-
Book Chinese New Year space early
- Factories in China slow down from late January. Our Chinese New Year 2027 shipping deadlines set out the holiday calendar for China and Taiwan.
Frequently asked questions
Is the Suez Canal open to container ships again?
The canal never closed. Carriers avoided the Red Sea approach after attacks began in late 2023. As of November 5, 2026, Drewry counts about 60% of Asia–Europe capacity back on the Suez route, with more services due to switch through the first quarter of 2027.
Which shipping lines are using the Suez Canal again?
All the major groups have at least a partial return. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have moved several Gemini services since July, MSC has restored four services since late August, CMA CGM never fully left, COSCO and OOCL returned in September, and Premier Alliance started with its FE1 service in October. ZIM still showed Cape routing in early November.
How many days does Suez save compared with the Cape of Good Hope?
About 10–14 days to North Europe and 7–10 days to the first Mediterranean port. Shanghai to Rotterdam is 10,513 nautical miles via Suez and 13,793 via the Cape.
Will freight rates from China to Europe fall in 2027?
Analysts expect so. Xeneta forecasts a 30% drop in global average spot rates in 2027 and Drewry expects contract rates to fall further, because returning ships and new deliveries add capacity faster than demand grows. A new security incident would reverse that.
Is the Red Sea safe for container ships now?
Safer than a year ago, not risk-free. The Houthis have said they will not target European or US ships, but Saudi-linked vessels remain targets and a drone was shot down near a container ship in mid-October. Carriers decide service by service and can divert at short notice.
How do I know whether my container goes via Suez or the Cape?
Check the vessel and voyage number on your booking against the carrier's advisory for the first Suez sailing on that service and direction. If the quoted transit to North Europe is about 32–35 days, it is a Suez routing. Check again if the cargo is rolled.
Why would a return to Suez cause port congestion in Europe?
Because ships that left Asia two weeks apart can arrive in the same week, one via the Cape and one via Suez. Terminals in Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges and Hamburg are already under pressure, and Drewry warns of bunching if the return speeds up.
Should I shorten my lead times for Asia–Europe orders now?
Only for services you have confirmed are on Suez, and in stages. Schedule reliability on the trade was very low in September, and carriers reversed Suez returns twice in early 2026. Keep Cape timing for critical cargo.
Do Suez sailings carry extra surcharges?
They can. MSC, for example, applies a $55 per TEU piracy risk surcharge and a $36 per TEU Suez Canal surcharge on its Asia to Mediterranean and Black Sea trade from November 15, 2026. Compare all-in quotes.
Does the Suez return change transpacific shipping?
Indirectly. Ships released from the longer Cape route can be redeployed to other trades, which adds capacity there too. Analysts see the Suez return as one reason global rates should fall in 2027.
About this guide
- Last reviewed
- Experience
- Written by Paul Liang at Mingsung International Logistics in Taipei. Mingsung books ocean freight from Taiwan and mainland China every week and runs its own cross-strait services, so we see carrier routing changes at origin as they are announced.
- Coverage
- Covers carrier routing status, transit times, spot and contract rate trends, transition risks and contract clauses for the Asia–Europe trade.
- Based on
- Based on Drewry's World Container Index, Xeneta's weekly updates and Ocean Outlook 2027, Freightos, Linerlytica data as reported by C.H. Robinson, BIMCO, carrier customer advisories from Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC, and trade press reporting through November 12, 2026.
- Please note
- Market information, not a forecast you should rely on for a single shipment. Carrier routings change weekly and can reverse at short notice. Confirm the routing, transit time and surcharges for your own booking with the carrier or your forwarder. Mingsung does not operate Asia–Europe vessels; we book space with the carriers named here.
Update log
- First published. Routing status and rates checked through November 12, 2026.
- Scheduled update: carrier status and December rates.
More in this series
Sources
- Drewry — World Container Index, November 5, 2026
- C.H. Robinson — November 2026 ocean freight market update
- AJOT — Xeneta Summit: spot rates forecast to fall 30% in 2027 as Red Sea return sees capacity flooding back
- Xeneta — Weekly ocean container shipping market update, October 23, 2026
- Freightos — Red Sea container traffic set for full return in Q1, October 20, 2026
- FreightWaves — How new capacity is raising rates in chaotic ocean market
- Breakbulk News — Drewry warns of unavoidable overcapacity as Suez return adds 1.6 million TEU
- Tradlinx — Asia–Europe services returning to Suez: carrier-by-carrier status
- Tradlinx — Suez shipping recovers, but sudden reroutes threaten cargo ETAs
- gCaptain — Premier Alliance prepares for Asia–North Europe services return to Suez
- Kuehne+Nagel — Ocean carriers accelerate their return to the Suez Canal
- SEKO Logistics — Asia–Europe trade lane guide 2026
- Searoutes — Red Sea reopening: emissions and shipping challenges
- MSC — Customer advisory: PRS and SCS, Asia to Mediterranean and Black Sea, November 2026
- transport-online — Suez Canal: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd return with additional service
- SeaVantage — Strait of Hormuz crisis 2026: shipping disruption timeline
