2027 Transpacific Contract Season: US Importer Playbook

Bottom line

Don't lock your whole 2027 volume at today's crisis-level prices — fix the core, index the rest, and spend your negotiating energy on surcharges and space

Transpacific spot rates are above $8,000 per FEU to the West Coast, roughly four times their level before the Strait of Hormuz crisis began on Feb 28, 2026. But the 2027 supply picture points the other way: BIMCO and Drewry both expect the container fleet to grow about 9% in 2027, and the Suez return alone could release about 1.6 million TEU of capacity.

That sets up a classic contract-season trap. Carriers will anchor on today's spot market. The right response is not to bet on a collapse, but to structure the contract so you benefit if rates fall and stay protected if they don't.

Three things to get right:

Run the tender on the industry clock. Most transpacific contracts start May 1, the industry meets at TPM in Long Beach on Feb 28–Mar 3, 2027, and the largest retailers finalize by early April.
Split your volume. Many shippers now fix around 80% for reliability and index the remainder to market, rather than all-or-nothing.
Negotiate the surcharges, not just the base rate. In 2026, surcharges took up 38–47% of negotiation time, and a summer peak season surcharge of $2,000 per FEU could more than double contract costs.

When does the 2027 transpacific contract season run?

Table 1. When does the 2027 transpacific contract season run?
When	What happens	Your move
Now – December 2026	Carriers and forwarders start 2027 budget talks; Xeneta reported tendering beginning by late September	Build your volume forecast by lane, port pair and month
December – January	RFQs go out; carriers submit first rounds	Shortlist carriers and NVOCCs; ask for surcharge schedules up front
Feb 28 – Mar 3, 2027	TPM conference, Long Beach	Use the market read to set your second-round targets
March – early April	Large BCOs award; smaller importers and NVOCCs follow	Award by lane; get written allocation commitments
May 1, 2027	Most transpacific contracts take effect for 12 months	Service contracts must be filed with the FMC before cargo moves

Source: JOC: TPM 2027; Xeneta: BCO tender data

Where are rates now, and where are they heading?

Table 2. Where are rates now, and where are they heading?
Indicator (date)	US West Coast	US East Coast
Drewry WCI (Oct 22, 2026)	Shanghai–LA $8,007 / FEU	Shanghai–New York $10,166 / FEU
Freightos FBX (week to Oct 20)	$8,126 / FEU	$9,700 / FEU
Xeneta spot (Oct 23)	$8,311 / FEU (+342% vs Feb 28)	$11,525 / FEU (+335%)
Xeneta 3-month spot forecast	$4,500–5,500 / FEU	$6,000–7,000 / FEU
2026–27 contract base rates (JOC)	about $1,700–1,900 / FEU	about $1,000 higher

Source: Drewry WCI; Freightos; Xeneta, Oct 23; JOC contract rates

Xeneta's chief analyst Peter Sand says US trades "have peaked" and expects "a sizable correction, but not a collapse." Drewry expects rates to hold steady in the near term as blank sailings fall.

Why 2027 could be a buyer's market, and what could flip it

Table 3. Why 2027 could be a buyer's market, and what could flip it
Factor	Direction for 2027	Source
Fleet growth	+9% in 2027 (vs +4.6% in 2026)	BIMCO, Sept 24, 2026; Drewry
Orderbook	42–45% of the current fleet, the highest ratio since 2009	BIMCO; Drewry
Suez return	About 1.6m TEU freed; Gemini and Maersk target a full return by Q1–March 2027	Drewry; Hapag-Lloyd; Maersk
Demand growth	0.5–2.5% if Hormuz stays closed; 2.5–4.5% if it reopens	BIMCO
Port congestion	About 3m TEU (8.5% of the fleet) tied up in delays, vs 2.2% before the pandemic	Sea-Intelligence

Source: BIMCO via World Cargo News; Drewry via Breakbulk News; Sea-Intelligence via Splash247

What could keep rates high:

Hormuz. Attacks continued in October 2026, and fuel has averaged $668 per ton this year against $535 in 2025.
Congestion unwinding slowly. Delays are absorbing capacity that would otherwise flood the market.
Panama Canal. El Niño risk peaks January–April 2027, which matters for all-water East Coast services.
US port fees. USTR's fees on China-linked vessels are suspended to Nov 9, 2026, with an extension to Jan 9, 2027 proposed. If they return, carriers will try to pass them through.

Lock or float? Choosing a contract structure

Core volume

Fixed 12-month rate

Steady, forecastable lanes
Insist on weekly allocation and PSS/GRI exclusions
Separate, formula-based bunker

Flex volume

Index-linked

Volume above your MQC or seasonal peaks
Monthly reset to FBX, WCI or Xeneta
Floor, ceiling and a reopener clause

Irregular volume

NVOCC / spot

New lanes, LCL, one-off orders
NSA or NRA with a forwarder
Full market exposure; keep it small

A common 2027 starting point: about 80% fixed, 20% indexed, with an NVOCC for overflow.

Table 4. Lock or float? Choosing a contract structure
Structure	How it works	Best for	Main risk
Fixed 12-month	One base rate for May–April, surcharges separate	Steady volume, low risk appetite	You overpay if the market drops; fixed rates are only as good as your space guarantee
Index-linked	Base rate tracks an index (FBX, WCI or Xeneta) with monthly resets and a floor and ceiling	Importers who want to follow the market with guardrails	Choosing the index; GSA's president says "agreeing on which index is the first problem"
Hybrid (about 80/20)	Core volume fixed, flexible or above-MQC volume indexed	Most mid-size importers	More admin; needs clear volume tracking
Short-term (3–6 months)	Shorter fixed periods with re-tender	Importers expecting a fall	You may re-tender in a spike
Spot / FAK via NVOCC	Buy each shipment at market	Small or irregular volumes	Full exposure to spikes and rollovers

Source: FBJNA roundtables; Xeneta: index-linked contracts

Preference for 12-month terms fell from 52% to 43% between 2023 and 2024, while 3–6 month terms rose from 13% to 26%. Xeneta reports that shippers on index-linked contracts met their minimum quantity commitments well in 2026, while the 25–30% of shippers stuck on rolling short extensions were exposed to high rates with no tender leverage.

Cost example: 500 FEU a year to the US West Coast

Assumptions: fixed all-in rate of $2,300 per FEU (a $1,900 base plus $400 of bunker), and an index portion that pays the average spot rate. Two scenarios: a soft 2027 with spot averaging $2,000, and a disrupted 2027 with spot averaging $7,000.

Table 5. Cost example: 500 FEU a year to the US West Coast
Structure	Soft 2027	Disrupted 2027
100% fixed (500 × $2,300)	$1,150,000	$1,150,000, if the carrier honors space
80% fixed + 20% indexed	$920,000 + $200,000 = $1,120,000	$920,000 + $700,000 = $1,620,000
100% spot	$1,000,000	$3,500,000

Which clauses matter more than the base rate?

Table 6. Which clauses matter more than the base rate?
Clause	What to negotiate	Why it matters in 2027
Bunker (BAF)	A transparent formula tied to a named fuel index, reset monthly or quarterly, separate from the base rate	Fuel moved sharply in 2026; Xeneta suggests fixing BAF for at least 4–6 months
Peak season surcharge and GRIs	Exclude them from contract cargo, or cap them	A $2,000 PSS more than doubled some summer 2026 contract costs
Emergency surcharges	Required notice period and an end trigger	Hapag-Lloyd's 2026 emergency fuel surcharge started 16 days later on US cargo because of FMC notice rules
Port fee pass-through	Who pays if USTR's China-linked vessel fees return	Fees can reach $120 per container discharged on Chinese-built ships under the current schedule
Weekly allocation	A written weekly space commitment by lane, with remedies	In 2026, carriers held contract shippers to weekly limits and pushed overflow to spot
Minimum quantity commitment (MQC)	Realistic volume, shortfall terms and seasonality	Overcommitting gives the carrier leverage; undercommitting loses priority
Rollovers and blank sailings	Notice, rebooking priority and service-level reporting	Global schedule reliability was about 50% in August 2026
Free time	Demurrage and detention days at destination ( how to audit D&D)	Congestion at LA/LB pushed rail dwell above 7 days in September
Index floor, ceiling and reopener	Limits on index swings and a clause to reopen if the market moves more than an agreed percentage	Protects both sides in a volatile year

Source: Hapag-Lloyd EFS notice; White & Case: USTR port fees; HFW: FMC D&D rule

BCO contract or NVOCC? What smaller importers should know

You do not need Walmart's volume to negotiate. Smaller importers usually have three routes.

Table 7. BCO contract or NVOCC? What smaller importers should know
Route	How it works	Good fit
Direct BCO service contract	Your own contract with a carrier, filed with the FMC	Several hundred FEU a year on consistent lanes
NVOCC service arrangement (NSA)	A contract with a forwarder/NVOCC, which buys carrier space in bulk	Mid-size volumes; NSAs no longer need to be filed or published
NVOCC negotiated rate arrangement (NRA)	Agreed rates per shipment or period	Irregular volumes, LCL, new lanes

Source: FMC NSA/NRA final rule; JOC: NVO share of bookings

NVOCCs handled about 46% of eastbound transpacific bookings at the end of 2024. Carriers tend to push small accounts toward FAK and spot pricing, so pooling volume with a forwarder can buy priority that a small direct contract will not.

7-step tender playbook for May 2027

Build a lane-level forecast
- Volume by origin port, destination port and month, including peak season.
- Separate firm volume from optional volume.
Benchmark before you ask
- Track at least one index (FBX, WCI or Xeneta) and your own 2026 all-in costs per FEU.
- Note what your carriers actually charged in surcharges, not just base rates.
Write the RFQ around surcharges
- Ask every bidder for its BAF formula, PSS policy, emergency surcharge notice terms and port-fee pass-through position.
- Ask for weekly allocation and free time in the bid itself.
Mix carriers and channels
- Typically two to three carriers for core volume, plus an NVOCC for flex.
- Score bids on reliability, blank sailing history and transit time as well as price.
Use TPM as your second-round checkpoint
- Revisit capacity forecasts after Feb 28–Mar 3; that is when the market forms its view.
Award with written commitments
- Weekly allocation, rollover remedies and a reopener clause in writing.
- Confirm the contract is filed with the FMC before May 1 cargo moves.
Review quarterly
- Compare contract performance against your scorecard and the index.
- Use the data in the 2028 tender.

Frequently asked questions

When do transpacific ocean contracts start?

Most start on May 1 and run 12 months. Tendering runs from late in the previous year through March, and the largest importers usually finalize by early April.

Will ocean freight rates drop in 2027?

Most forecasters expect weaker markets. BIMCO and Drewry both project about 9% fleet growth in 2027, and the Suez return could free about 1.6 million TEU. Hormuz, congestion and Panama Canal water levels are the main risks to that outlook.

Should I sign a 12-month fixed contract?

For your core, predictable volume, usually yes, but only with a weekly space commitment and clear surcharge terms. Many importers index the flexible part of their volume rather than fixing everything.

What is an index-linked ocean contract?

A contract whose base rate follows a published freight index, such as FBX, WCI or Xeneta, usually with monthly adjustments and a floor and ceiling.

What is a minimum quantity commitment (MQC)?

The volume you promise a carrier over the contract term. Set it at realistic firm volume; overcommitting creates shortfall exposure, and undercommitting can cost you priority in a tight market.

How do I stop carriers from rolling my contract cargo?

Negotiate a written weekly allocation by lane, rebooking priority if cargo is rolled, and reporting on blank sailings. A low rate without space commitments is not worth much in a spike.

What is TPM?

TPM is the Journal of Commerce's annual transpacific maritime conference in Long Beach, California. TPM 2027 runs Feb 28–Mar 3, 2027, and it is where the market's view of contract pricing usually forms.

Can a small importer negotiate a contract?

Yes, directly with a carrier if you have consistent volume, or through an NVOCC service arrangement. Pooling volume through a forwarder often gets better priority than a small direct contract.

About this guide

Paul Liang
Mingsung International Logistics, Taipei

Last reviewed: Oct 27, 2026
Experience: Written by Paul Liang at Mingsung International Logistics in Taipei. Mingsung books transpacific space from Taiwan and mainland China every week, so we see carriers' allocation decisions and surcharge changes at origin as they happen.
Coverage: Covers the transpacific contract calendar, rate indicators, 2027 capacity forecasts, contract structures, surcharge clauses, FMC rules and tender practice.
Based on: Based on Drewry, Freightos and Xeneta rate data; BIMCO and Drewry capacity outlooks; Sea-Intelligence congestion data; USTR's Section 301 port fee notices; FMC rules under OSRA 2022; and JOC reporting on contract rates.
Please note: Rate figures are published index values on the dates shown, not quotes. The cost example uses stated assumptions. This guide is general information, not legal advice; have counsel review service contract terms.

Update log

Oct 27, 2026First published at the start of the 2027 tender season.

2027 Transpacific Contract Season: US Importer Playbook

Bottom line

When does the 2027 transpacific contract season run?

Where are rates now, and where are they heading?

Why 2027 could be a buyer's market, and what could flip it